An extended disruption to Middle East petroleum and gas infrastructure will keep prices elevated—and the public deserves straight answers.

Trump administration officials—most prominently Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, with President Trump echoing the message—have suggested that the disruption to petroleum and natural-gas markets will be short-lived, and that prices will return to normal within weeks after hostilities end.

That claim is false. It is misinformation at best—and an outright lie at worst. And much of the news media is treating this as a day-to-day political narrative, rather than stepping back and asking the forward-looking question that matters: what happens to global energy supply chains after critical infrastructure is damaged?

Here are the facts as they stand today.

Crude-oil transportation and processing facilities, natural-gas facilities, and oil refineries have been hit across the Middle East. Facilities in nine countries have been struck—many of them extensively.

Since the conflict began, 23 oil and gas facilities across those nine countries have reportedly been struck:

• 17 targeted by Iran and its proxies.
• 6 inside Iran hit by U.S. and Israeli forces.

Reported economic damage is already estimated at more than \$25 billion, and full recovery at some sites could take as long as five years.

This is not a short-term headline. It is long-term damage to petroleum and natural-gas supply chains the world depends on—and the United States is not insulated from the consequences.

Market signals already reflect that reality:

• Brent crude is up roughly 50–80%, trading in the low \$110s per barrel; spikes above \$119 have been recorded.
• Regional crude benchmarks (Dubai/Oman) have reportedly traded above \$150 per barrel, an unprecedented premium versus West Texas Intermediate (WTI), with spreads reported around \$50+.
• Global gas and LNG benchmarks have surged: Asia spot LNG is at or near recent highs, and European prices (Dutch TTF) are sharply higher versus pre-war levels.

The consequences for world petroleum supplies are not measured in days or even weeks—they are measured in months and years. That means U.S. consumers should not expect gasoline and natural-gas prices to “return to normal” shortly after a ceasefire. Elevated energy prices feed directly into inflation and slower growth, and they can contribute to recession risk—especially if the conflict expands or additional infrastructure is damaged.

Americans are being told—by Rubio, Bessent, and President Trump—that this disruption will be brief. Based on the scale of infrastructure damage and the price signals already visible in global markets, that story does not withstand scrutiny.

See a following document for the detail on what damages and impact have already occured.