Oil Refineries and Crude Processing Facilities

Saudi Arabia

• Ras Tanura Refinery — Temporarily halted operations after a drone attack early in the war; later restarted.
• Samref Refinery (Yanbu) — Hit by a drone; damage reported but extent not fully disclosed.
• Jubail Petrochemical Complex — Received evacuation warnings after Iranian threats; targeted as part of retaliatory strike lists.

United Arab Emirates

• Ruwais Refinery — One of the world’s largest; shut as a precaution after a drone strike caused a fire in the industrial zone.
• Fujairah Oil Facility — Fire and smoke observed after missile/drone strike.
• Al Hosn Gas Field — Listed among facilities warned for evacuation due to Iranian threats.

Bahrain

• BAPCO Sitra Refinery — Hit twice on March 9; critical processing units damaged; operations halted under force majeure.

Kuwait

• Mina Al‑Ahmadi Refinery — Hit in multiple strikes; some units shut down.
• Mina Abdullah Refinery — Fire caused by attack; extinguished; Kuwait’s overall oil output cut by at least half.

Iraq

• Lanaz Refinery (Erbil) — Fire from drone strike; operations suspended.

Natural Gas & LNG Facilities

Qatar

• Ras Laffan Industrial City (World’s Largest LNG Hub)
  • Extensive damage from Iranian ballistic missiles; major fires; LNG production halted.
  • Damage includes LNG trains S4 and S6, cutting capacity by ~17% (≈12.8 million tonnes/year).
  • Recovery estimated to take years due to long lead times for replacement turbines.
• Mesaieed Industrial City — Hit by Iranian drone strikes; LNG production halted.

Iran

• South Pars Gas Field (World’s Largest Gas Field)
  • Hit by Israeli strikes; described as “extremely important and valuable.”
  • Extent of damage not fully disclosed, but attacks triggered major Iranian retaliation.
• Asaluyeh Gas Processing Facilities — Targeted by Israeli strikes; part of Iran’s core gas infrastructure.

Oil & Gas Transport Infrastructure

Strait of Hormuz Region

• At least five oil/gas tankers targeted by Iranian strikes in the Persian Gulf.
  • Contributed to near‑shutdown of the strait, which normally carries 20% of global oil/LNG.

Saudi Red Sea Refinery (Unnamed)

• Hit by Iranian drone; designed to bypass Hormuz; damage reported.

Regional Damage Summary

Most Severely Damaged Sites (Top Tier)

1. Ras Laffan Industrial City (Qatar) — Extensive structural damage; major LNG trains offline.
2. South Pars Gas Field (Iran) — Strategic gas hub struck; details limited but geopolitically critical.
3. BAPCO Sitra Refinery (Bahrain) — Multiple strikes; operations halted.
4. Mina Al‑Ahmadi & Mina Abdullah (Kuwait) — Repeated hits; major output reductions.
5. Ruwais Refinery (UAE) — Fire and shutdown after drone strike.

Snapshot: what’s happened to prices so far

• Crude oil (Brent):
  • Up ~50–80% from pre‑war levels, trading around the low $110s per barrel; spikes above $119 have been recorded.
• Regional crude (Dubai/Oman, Asia):
  • Trading far above U.S. benchmarks, with Dubai and Oman crude reported above $150 per barrel, an unprecedented spread vs WTI (~$50+).
• Global LNG benchmarks:
  • Asia spot LNG and European gas prices have surged, with Asia LNG at or near recent highs and Dutch TTF gas sharply higher versus pre‑war levels.

Core drivers of the shock

1. Strait of Hormuz closure / near‑closure
   • Roughly 20% of global oil and about a fifth of global LNG normally move through Hormuz.
   • Transits are down 90–95%, effectively choking off Gulf exports and forcing producers (Saudi, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar, UAE) to cut output as storage fills.
2. Physical damage to key facilities
   • Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex: multiple trains damaged; two trains expected to take years to fully repair.
   • Iran’s South Pars gas field and other Gulf infrastructure have been hit, meaning even after Hormuz reopens, export capacity is structurally lower for a while.
3. Scale of supply loss
   • IEA and industry estimates: 8–10 million b/d of oil and roughly 20% of global LNG effectively removed from the market in the short run.
   • Dallas Fed analysis frames this as a ~20% global oil supply shortfall, making it 3–5× larger than classic shocks like 1973 or 1990.
4. Mitigation that only partially works
   • 400 million barrels of emergency oil releases (IEA + U.S. SPR) and temporary easing of sanctions on some Russian/Iranian barrels are cushioning—but not neutralizing—the shock.
   • Alternative routes (Saudi pipeline to Yanbu, etc.) help, but cannot replicate Hormuz volumes.

Oil market impact: how bad and how long?

Short term (next 1–3 months):

• Price level:
  • As long as Hormuz is effectively shut, a $110–$130 Brent range is consistent with current disruption; Asia benchmarks can trade well above that due to localized scarcity and freight/insurance premia. (Range is an inference from current prints and scale of outage.)
• Regional divergence:
  • Asia bears the brunt: record Dubai/Oman prices and huge physical premiums over futures.
  • U.S./Europe are partially shielded by SPR releases and Atlantic Basin barrels, but refined products (diesel, jet, gasoline) are already tight and rising.

Medium term (after partial reopening of Hormuz):

• Even if shipping resumes, damaged infrastructure + depleted inventories mean:
  • Prices are unlikely to return to pre‑war levels quickly; CEOs are openly saying “higher for longer.”
  • Once emergency stock releases end, restocking itself becomes a second‑wave demand shock, keeping prices elevated.

LNG market impact: sharper and more structural

1. Immediate hit to supply
   • Global LNG exports are down about 20% from the start of the month, to a six‑month low, driven mainly by Qatar and, to a lesser extent, UAE.
   • Ras Laffan’s damage plus Hormuz closure removes a huge chunk of flexible LNG that Europe and Asia relied on post‑Ukraine.
2. Price and storage dynamics
   • Asia LNG and European gas prices have jumped; the EU is already being told to start filling storage early to avoid a summer bidding war.
   • Some buyers (e.g., Colombia cargo at $20/mmbtu) are paying extreme prices for marginal volumes—signaling a tight, stress‑tested market.
3. Duration of impact
   • Because some Ras Laffan trains will take years to repair, the LNG market faces a multi‑year structural tightness, even after the war cools.

Macro lens: what this means for the global economy

• Oil shock magnitude:
  • Dallas Fed and independent analysts compare this to or worse than 1973, given the ~20% supply hit.
• Transmission channels:
  • Higher transport and heating costs, jet fuel and diesel shortages, and LNG price spikes feed into inflation and squeeze growth, especially in Asia and Europe.
• Recession risk:
  • If Hormuz remains constrained and prices stay elevated, the classic pattern—demand destruction via recession—becomes the main “brake” on further price rises.