Here is an “historical what if?” and how It relates to what Is happening In Europe, Ukraine, and our country today.

As Hitler came to power  in the 1930’s he stated to the German people and the world he would “protect” German speaking people who were being discriminated against.  Hitler used this as a pretext to walk into Austria, then take over the Sudetenland, and finally carve apart Czechoslovakia.  He was allowed to do this in both Austria and Sudetenland without opposition and was empowered by the 1938 Munich Agreement for his actions in Czechoslovakia – the Munich Agreement that he soon ripped apart. Bottom line, he felt no constraints to using his “bully pulpit” – the German military to achieve his goals. 

His next action was the invasion of Poland and with that action he initiated the reaction of both France and England to declare war.

From all of this came WWII, with all its horrors, more than seventy-three million killed – more than half that total in Europe, Europe laid waste.  And the USA suffering over four hundred thousand killed and several times that wounded.

Now, that is history.  Those are the facts.

How does that play out today and what might history have been had those events in the 1930’s played out differently?

Imagine an alternative history if in the mid-1930’s the allied powers of France and England had intervened in Hitler’s actions in Austria, Sudetenland, or Czechoslovakia?  Or more importantly, imagine an alternative history if allied powers with Poland had been able to arm them sufficiently to resist the German invasion.  Just a few hundred anti-tank guns, just a few hundred anti-aircraft guns, just a very few hundred or so modern fighters.  Imagine how that would have affected not just the invasion, but the next five years, Hitler would have been stymied, his goals not achieved.  Perhaps World War II, in all its horror and the deaths of tens of millions be averted.  All for Poland’s lack of being able to defend itself, for the lack of only few hundred of select weapons.  Tens of millions of deaths averted, a continent devastated diverted.  How might history have been written but for the lack of these actions?

And how do those years, 80 years or more ago echo in today’s world?  Perhaps even shouting out to the present what actions are necessary to avoid repeating those times?

Today, we have Russia under the leadership, the dictatorship, of Putin.  Putin has publicly said to Russia and the world that he will protect Russian speaking populations wherever they are being discriminated against, wherever they are being subjugated.  The Russian government has articulated what might be called the Putin Doctrine, a blanket assertion that Moscow has the right and the obligation to protect Russians anywhere in the world.  Given the fall of Russian empire in 1917 and the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 Russian speaking populations exist outside of Russia throughout eastern Europe.  Significant Russian speaking populations exist in the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.  Significant Russian speaking people exist in Moldova, Poland, and Hungary.  Putin has used this pretext, the Putin Doctrine, to justify his invasion of Ukraine, to protect the Russian speaking populations there.

Without the military support of the USA and its western European allies in NATO, Ukraine would have fallen by now.  Not in the initial weeks of the invasion as Ukraine put up a much greater resistance than Putin could have imagined, but in months Ukraine would have fallen.  Putin would then have been able to walk into Moldova.  With Ukraine and Moldova within his sphere Putin would then have leverage over Hungary, would insist that Poland open Russia land access to Kaliningrad which is an enclave with over two hundred thousand Russian citizens lying on the Baltic Sea surrounded by Poland.  Putin could demand the land bridge be ceded to Russia.  Putin would turn his attention to the Baltic states, with an invasion of those three states very likely.  All these actions taken to “protect Russian speaking peoples.”

What is stopping this scenario from playing out?  Afterall, Putin has been reported to have stated these goals to his inner circle.  What is stopping this “future”? 

Ukraine.  One word – Ukraine and its ability to resist Putin’s invasion.  That and a unified NATO.  These are the only things keeping Putin from achieving his desired goals.

Are these at risk? 

It only takes a moment of your time to look at the headlines in the news today and see emphatically that yes, they are.. 

The Republican House is refusing to provide critical military funding to support Ukraine. Even though seventy percent of that funding stays here in the USA as the munitions, the firearms, the support equipment is all being build, manufactured here in the US.  Even more importantly, to provide Ukraine with this military assistance the US is factually rebuilding our internal critical capacity to support our own military with munitions, firearms, and support equipment.  Through the funding of Ukraine, we are building up our own critical military manufacturing capacity which has wasted away since 1991 and the fall of the Soviet Union.  Speaker of the House Mike Johnson’s opposition to the military funding for Ukraine is undermining our own security and is a gross dereliction of his sworn duty.  Without American military funding support Ukraine will fall.

Today’s news also includes NATO.  The NATO alliance was THE key component of holding the Soviet Union at bay in Europe from 1946 until 1991.  Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union NATO’s purpose has evolved over the past thirty years. In the immediate aftermath of the fall of the Soviet Union there was clear concern about the detritus, the litter, from the Soviet dissolution.  Europe saw numerous conflicts arise in the aftermath.  The war in the Balkans, internal conflicts with the border of the old Soviet Union meant NATO still had a purpose of common defense, the alliance still was needed.  It has continued to evolve and expand as it’s purpose is to promote common defense, support liberty and democracy – often supporting critical EU initiatives.  As the Prime Minister of Great Britain said, “You don’t cancel your home insurance policy just because there have been fewer burglaries on your street in the last 12 months!”  With the resurgence of a Putin led Russia willingly using its military to achieve its goals, NATO relevance increased tenfold overnight. 

Yet today the leading Republican candidate, the presumed nominee, has ranted that he would effectively dissolve NATO, and allow Russia – even inviting Russia – to attack NATO members.  The Republican candidate would, in fact, remove the USA from the NATO alliance.  Should that happen, should Donald J. Trump be re-elected, should he then remove the USA from the NATO alliance the scenario above where Putin would be unrestrained, just as Hitler was unrestrained prior to the start of World War II, would effectively take place.  And the USA would be drawn into a resulting conflict the world has not seen since 1939. 

It is critical the USA support Ukraine with military funding – it not only constrains Putin’s ambition, but it also effectively builds up American military capacity for the future.  It is critical the USA maintains its participation and LEADERSHIP of NATO as a bulwark to Putin’s goals and critical to the security of not our most important trade and democracy partners, but also essential to our country’s economic and military security.