Pay attention, we are closer today to becoming directly involved in Ukraine conflict than we were yesterday. With the passage of the funding act to keep the Federal government funded, Congress excluded the funding to Ukraine of needed military assistance. This will only encourage Putin to continue his attack on Ukraine, and will provide evidence to him, that his resolve will outlast the USA and other supporters of Ukraine. Putin’s determination to outlast the West’s support of Ukraine and continue the conflict will only increase the likelihood of our country being pulled into the conflict.
To this date, not a single US or NATO soldier or airmen have died in the conflict. The conflict has diminished conventional ground forces of the Russian military by 50%, degrading not only armor forces, but Russia’s most highly trained troops with significant reductions in its artillery and air defenses. Threats of Russia taking direct military action against NATO countries are now seen as hollow threats.

What does Ukraine represent to Putin? Why is he so determined to regain Ukraine into the Russian sphere of influence or to absorb Ukraine directly into Russia as a “new” state?

Here is what Putin gains:

1. Increases the population of Russia by nearly 31%
2. Adds 12% to Russia’s GDP
3. Regains the shipyards in Mykolaiv located on the Black Sea, the only shipyard capable of serving the largest ships in the Russian fleet.
4. Regains control of Pivdenne, a company based in Dnipro, which was the center of the Soviet Union’s intercontinental missile production
5. Regains control of Motor Sich, a company based in Zaporizhzhia which equipped Soviet aircraft with its engines and gas turbines
6. Regains control of Antonov, the company behind the largest aircraft of all time, the Mriia A-225, which was destroyed in the first days of the war.
7, Regains control of the Malyushev factory in Kharkiv which was the largest armor production center in the former Soviet Union and had been since World War II.
8. In total Russia would regain control of over seven hundred companies and over 600,000 workers that were essential to the Soviet Union’s production of military equipment.
9. Gain control of agriculture production which includes:
     A. Over two thirds of Ukraine’s landmass is dedicated to agriculture, with nearly a quarter of the world’s most fertile soil, known as Chernozem, is located in Ukraine.
     B. Produces 9% of the world’s export of wheat.
     C. Produces 14% of the worlds export in corn.
     D. Produces 47% of the worlds export of sunflower oil.

What does Putin gain strategically if he wins this war?

Putin would move the border of Russia two to three hundred miles west. That move exposes the entire eastern border of Poland to Russia’s military. Would place demands on Poland to provide a direct corridor to the Russian enclave at Kaliningrad. Would expose borders of Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, and Bulgaria as it would Poland’s. Would certainly include Moldova being absorbed into the Russian state. Would make the defense of the NATO Baltic states – Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia untenable. This new situation could force a significant adjustment in the meaning and purpose of the NATO alliance. Putin has been clear about his goals: He wants to reestablish Russia’s traditional sphere of influence in Eastern and Central Europe. This scenario would increase the potential of a full armed conflict between Russia and NATO.

And let’s not forget painful lessons of history.  Today we have China threatening Tiawan which it considers to be a “breakaway” state of China. Should Putin succeed in his desire to reestablish hegemony over Ukraine, it would open the door for China to perform in a like fashion with Tiawan. Today the USA faces two strategic challenges. Putin in Europe and China in the east. The last time this happened was in the 1930’s, a time when the USA was isolationist in its international outlook. These simultaneous strategic challenges in two distant theaters are reminiscent of the 1930s, when Germany and Japan sought to overturn the existing order in their respective regions. They were never true allies, did not trust each other and did not directly coordinate their strategies. Nevertheless, each benefited from the other’s actions. Germany’s advances in Europe emboldened the Japanese to take greater risks in East Asia; Japan’s advances gave Adolf Hitler confidence that a distracted United States would not risk a two-front conflict.

So, back to my main point. Even the hint of a lack of resolve in the USA supporting Ukraine only heightens the risk of our country becoming directly involved in the conflict. I believe our State Department, our military, and much of the US Senate recognizes the dangers we face if we fail to support, fully support Ukraine. Unfortunately, there are political forces in the US today that care only about gaining political power in the short term, and they are willing to present lies, fiction, to raise fears and anger to achieve this political power at to the cost to the nation’s welfare and security.